Current Status Of The Feds Efforts To Stem Foreclosures ...

You want to know the current state of affairs regarding the housing market and the effect of foreclosures and HAMP are having on your home and the economy in general?  Then you might want to check out the following attachment:

http://cop.senate.gov/reports/library/report-100909-cop.cfm

This link contains the entire Congressional Oversight Committee's study and YouTube video released by the Congressional Committee regarding the current status of the market, foreclosures and HAMP (loan modifications program).  Definitely interesting in light of the volume of gossip currently circulating in the news.

Any questions or if you want to know how this impacts you and your investments, contact me at jim@peys.net or visit us at http://www.coastalcommunityhomes.com.

The Real Story For Fall Sellers ...

Several reports and blogs today suggest that the summer honeymoon for prices will lose momentum as we roll further into fall.  Scott Sambucci at Altos Research states that many pundits believe that the U.S. housing market is likely to reach bottom by early 2010; however, in the meantime he suggests that prices will continue to slide an additional ten percent (10%).  In support of his opinion he points to the summer season concluding, rising national unemployment rate, higher level of foreclosure-driven inventory (see L.A. Times front page article regarding FHA loan reserves and pending foreclosure risks).

What facts do we know right now about the housing market locally?  Well the 90-day rolling average of median list prices hits an 'inflection' point in early August, then it moves consistently down each week in the fall.  As of today, a ten city composite shows asking prices down about 1.25% from early August numbers.  In addition, there is a noticeable delta between the overall market median price and new sellers entering the market this Fall, especially compared to the Spring 2009.  Experts point to several factors for the current market pessimism:

1. Lagging effects of the government's HAMP program;
2. Effects of the foreclosure moratorium programs;
3. The alleged end of the first-time homebuyer tax credit of $8,000;
4. National unemployment rates;
5. FHA concerns and proposed legislative initiatives that may limit these loan programs; and
6. Interest rate pressures in the spring of 2010

What we will see in published reports (newspapers, etc.) over the short term is that the sales volume, prices and inventory will reflect a slight market rebound.  However, note that these published statistics  report on 90 day old data (i.e., S&P/Case-Shiller reports).  So later in the fall we will begin seeing what is happening in the market in the early part of October.  

So Summer Buying Season Is Over ... What Now

Questions abound as we enter the fall season.  Will the Obama Administration continue the $8,000 tax credit past the end of this year for 1st time homebuyers?  When will the backlog of bank REO properties be unloaded onto the market?  What is the real status of the housing market?  Have we witnessed the bottom of the housing market?

What is your opinion ... email me your thoughts?

I just read a few statistics from Scott Sambucci over at Altos Research and he states that the inventory in his ten city composite is tightening, days on market is stabilizing and fewer sellers are relisting their properties. These indicators typically point to price stabilization or price increases in the housing market barring other factors, i.e., broader economic factors such as unemployment, etc.  And what is it that we see ... the short term prognostication is that asking prices are clearly falling in the same ten city composite and new sellers entering the market are doing so at lower prices.  The other factors that don't bode well for pundits espousing that the housing market is rebounding in several areas, is that over 1.0 million adjustable loans will soon reset into higher interest rates while unemployment rates remain on the rise.  These two factors (interest rates resetting and unemployment) will only exacerbate an already messy REO market segment.  This may result in a continued drag on existing home prices across the board.  In addition, there are rumors of interest rate increases sometime in 2010.

Although we may have experienced the worst of the price adjustments, there remains a few bumps in the road moving forward over the next eighteen months or so.  So what does that mean?  Well over the next 18 - 24 months there will be significant market opportunities for the brave of heart or those who have good credit and cash.  Consequently, the question is can you afford to remain on the sidelines wondering what to do?  Yes, there are many doubts and questions to cause most of us to hesitate and doubt the market's resiliency; however, these questions always abound in any market.  One truism that remains is that a property in a good location (old adage still applies ... "real estate is all about location, location, location") that is priced below the market is a GREAT deal and you should give it serious consideration!

If you are interested in tracking the local Southern California market and bank REOs then visit us at:  http://www.coastalcommunityhomes.com.  On our website you can search all the active listings for opportunities in Southern California, as well as get statistic data organized by neighborhoods and so much more!  As is always the case, if there is any way I can be of service to you or a friend, please feel free to contact me.